Why look at aircraft instead of news or prediction markets?
This should be read alongside other public signals. Prediction markets may react quickly to insider knowledge;
reporting about Iran-war bets described unusually well-timed wagers around military and oil-price events. This model is designed to tolerate normal one- or two-day increases in activity, including holiday travel, so a short surge has to be unusual relative to similar historical windows before it meaningfully moves the level.
Does level 5 mean an apocalypse is likely?
Level 5 means the current count is an extreme positive outlier under this model. It can still be caused by holidays, major sporting or political events, data artifacts, or cohort mistakes. The archive is included so those historical false positives are visible.